In the results of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Executive Board’s Article IV consultation with Haiti, the IMF estimates that Haiti’s growth is expected to be positive in 2025 and stabilize at only 1.5 percent over the medium term, pending further improvements in the security outlook.

The IMF emphasizes that Haiti is facing an unprecedented multidimensional crisis encompassing humanitarian, economic, social, and security challenges, and that the economy of the French-speaking Caribbean Community (Caricom) country has a weak tax base and a large informal sector that relies heavily on remittance flows from its diaspora

"The serious deterioration in security in recent years has amplified these challenges, leading to an increase in the number of internally and externally displaced persons and a significant decline in potential growth."

The IMF stated that Haiti’s macroeconomic outlook is challenging and subject to high uncertainty.

'The supply-side shock from the security crisis will continue to significantly affect growth and fuel inflation unless the security outlook improves. Tax revenues, which are essential to rebuild basic infrastructure after years of social unrest and to support important development needs, are recovering only slowly."

The IMF estimates that remittances will continue to finance consumption, although this mainly reflects an exodus of human capital that could further undermine a sustainable recovery.

Despite the weak conditions, IMF Directors acknowledged the authorities’ achievements in recent years in implementing reforms to strengthen economic resilience and restore macroeconomic stability.

They also noted that security normalization is essential to improve the economic outlook, stressing the critical role of international support in this regard, as well as in supporting reform efforts and helping to rebuild critical infrastructure.

Directors also called for continued engagement with the Fund, including through capacity building, appropriately guided by the Strategy for Fragile and Conflict-Affected States, and welcomed the authorities’ interest in a new staff monitoring program, which would provide a useful policy anchor.

IMF Directors commended the Haitian authorities for the timely adoption of the budget and their efforts to increase tax revenues, stressing that further progress on the authorities’ revenue mobilization agenda is critical to meet Haiti’s immense development needs, including through the implementation of the new tax code to broaden the tax base.

Directors noted the need to continue efforts to preserve debt sustainability, including by avoiding non-concessional lending. Strengthening social safety nets to protect the most vulnerable and reduce widespread poverty and continuing efforts to promote gender equality will also be essential. They welcomed Haiti’s commitment to maintaining monetary financing of the deficit at zero and called for continued efforts to promote price stability and improve the monetary policy framework.

They urged Haiti to conclude and publish the 2023 audit of the Central Bank (BRH) to demonstrate its commitment to transparency and to limit interventions in the foreign exchange market solely to mitigate excessive exchange rate volatility.

HL/ HaitiLibre