Global climate situation :

In the Pacific basin, the conditions of the "El Nina" episode are still relevant and have strengthened slightly - 0.9°C (November), instead of - 0.8°C in October. The ENSO (El Nino oscillation) is expected to maintain this trend until the end of the year, with a return to neutrality at the beginning of 2023. Thus, the probability that the El Nina episode will continue during the November to January period is within the 86% range, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center.

In the Atlantic Ocean, the equatorial waters are still slightly warmer than usual and the waters of the Antilles remain consistent in temperature with seasonal norms.

Expected impacts on the Caribbean :

The transition between the wet season and the dry season should be characterized by frequent rainy days. In addition, strong tropical cyclone activity may still develop until the end of the year, particularly over the Caribbean Sea.

Warming ocean surface temperatures in and around the Caribbean tend to contribute to higher air temperatures with above average humidity.

The El Nina episode tips the scales towards more precipitation during the coming months (November-December-January)

Seasonal rain forecast : (Trend November-December-January 2022-23)

The results of the seasonal rainy climate forecasts are the subject of a consensus based on the products of the forecasting models, observations on the state of the oceans and current knowledge on the climate of the region. This forecast is a qualitative assessment of the quantities of cumulative rainfall expected during the months of November, December and January. Indeed, according to the climate outlook of the Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF), precipitation totals should be slightly wetter than usual in most of the Antilles.

Haiti rain forecast :

40% chance that the amount of rain will be above normal.

35% chance that the amount of rain will be the same as normal.

25% chance that the amount of rain will be less than normal.

Haiti rain forecast :

Maximum:

45% below normal

35% normal

20% above normal

Minimum:

40% below normal

35% normal

25% above normal

Nighttime (minimum) and daytime (maximum) temperatures from November to January are expected to be close to normal or slightly below normal in many areas of the Caribbean including Haiti. Thus, on Haitian territory, thermal stress should be reduced with the possibility that certain areas will be a little cooler than usual.

HL/ HaitiLibre